Travel’s Uneven Future: How Demand, Dollars, and Influence Are Shifting
Summary
Sarah Kopit, Editor-in-Chief at Skift, delivered the opening keynote for ITB Berlin 2026's Marketing and Distribution Track, framing the year's central theme — 'leading tourism into balance' — as a response to pervasive uncertainty rather than a gentle reset. Drawing on Skift's 12 megatrends for 2026, she covered four in depth.
The first and most politically charged trend is the collapse of US inbound tourism. Skift surveyed travelers in five countries and found nearly half are less likely to visit the US because of President Trump's policies. In Canada the figure reached close to two-thirds; in Germany it was 54%. Respondents described their feelings about visiting the US in three words: fear, anger, sadness. The data reinforces this: in 2025 the US was the only major tourism economy among the 184 tracked by the WTTC to post a contraction, and a full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2029 — a full decade after the pandemic began. Compounding politics, affordability has deteriorated sharply: Skiff's perception index gives the US the lowest affordability score of any market it tracks, citing $60 resort fees in Las Vegas, $40 destination charges in New York, and $200 family dinners in Orlando. Among travelers reconsidering the US, the majority said they would redirect to Europe or Canada, presenting a rare generational opportunity — especially during the 2026 FIFA World Cup co-hosted by the US — for European and other destinations to capture displaced demand. Kopit noted that three-quarters of those boycotting the US said they would reconsider once Trump leaves office, meaning trust can be rebuilt, but it will take time.
The second megatrend is what Skift calls the K-shaped economy in travel. Moody's data shows the top 10% of US earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending — a record. In travel, lower and middle-class households are pulling back while affluent travelers increase spend. Delta's premium revenue was up 9% year-over-year in Q3; United launched a new business-class suite with caviar amuse-bouche; hotels commanding $1,000+ per night have tripled in the US and Europe since 2019; Norwegian Cruise Line ships are designed around a higher mix of balcony cabins; and a private LA-to-San Francisco sleeper train now starts at $10,000. Kopit's cautionary note: over-dependency on a single, narrow segment creates a load-bearing risk — if an AI bubble bursts, a white-collar recession materializes, or a protracted Middle East conflict emerges, that revenue base contracts quickly. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told Skift: 'The wealthy will still travel even if the market fails, just not with the same gusto.'
The third megatrend addresses structural threats to the OTA oligopoly. OTAs captured roughly 25% of hotel bookings in 2024, equal to direct channels, dominated by Booking Holdings, Expedia, Airbnb, and Trip.com. But generative AI and agentic AI represent 'the most serious structural threat in the OTA model's history.' Kopit introduced the concept of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO), where the goal is not to rank on Google but to be mentioned by AI systems. She cited a striking traffic asymmetry: Google historically sent back 2 visitors for every page scraped (a 1:2 ratio); OpenAI's ratio is 1:250; Anthropic's Claude is 1:6,000. Adobe found US travel site visits from AI sources jumped 3,500% year-over-year in July 2025. 29% of consumers now use AI for trip planning. Bernstein modeled three scenarios; in the most likely (60% probability), AI platforms access inventory from OTAs and suppliers directly, and hotels using the Model Context Protocol could bypass OTAs entirely by feeding rates straight to LLMs. Kayak pushed back, noting ChatGPT drove less than 1% of Expedia's traffic as of August 2024 — but Kopit countered that mobile traffic to travel sites was also less than 1% in 2009.
The fourth and most unexpected megatrend is the sobriety shift in hospitality. In 2025, only 54% of US adults reported drinking alcohol — the lowest in nearly 90 years of Gallup polling. Among Gen Z, only half say they drink at all, down 9 points in two years, and the majority of Gen Z travelers prefer to stay sober while traveling. EF's top-selling group trip for 18-to-35-year-olds in 2026 is a sober cruise through Croatia. Financially, the model works: at Tempo by Hilton, 25% of cocktails sold are now alcohol-free and are priced identically to full-proof versions; Marriott embedded zero-proof options across its entire guest journey; and F&B profit margins rose in H1 2025. Kopit's point: the revenue and margins hold even as drinking declines.
The Q&A touched on vibe coding (Kopit personally built a media monitoring tool using Claude Code for $100/month, describing Claude as 'very patient'), the future of loyalty programs (Kopit called herself both a Marriott Bonvoy loyalist and a 'mercenary' who will switch if not served well), and music tourism residencies (the Bad Bunny Puerto Rico residency as a model for non-Las Vegas cities).
Key Takeaways
- •Nearly half of travelers surveyed across five countries said they are less likely to visit the US due to President Trump — including 54% of Germans and close to two-thirds of Canadians. The US was the only major tourism economy among 184 tracked by the WTTC to contract in 2025, with full 2019-level recovery not expected until 2029.
- •Skift's perception index ranks the US last among all markets it tracks for affordability. Specific examples cited: $60 resort fees in Las Vegas, $40 destination charges in New York, $200 family dinners in Orlando.
- •Three-quarters of travelers currently boycotting the US said they would reconsider once Trump leaves office — signaling that the damage is politically contingent but that trust rebuilding takes time.
- •Europe has a once-in-a-generation demand capture opportunity, especially during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but Kopit warned it is not automatic: 'These travelers aren't coming to you by default. They can go to Japan, Southeast Asia. Canada is rolling out the red carpet.'
- •The top 10% of US earners now account for nearly half of all consumer spending (Moody's, record high). Hotels at $1,000+/night have tripled in the US and Europe since 2019. Delta premium revenue was up 9% YoY in Q3. A private LA-to-SF sleeper train starts at $10,000. Kopit warned: 'If the bubble doesn't burst, luxury becomes architecture. But if it does, there's nothing underneath.'
- •Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told Skift: 'The wealthy will still travel even if the market fails, just not with the same gusto' — flagging concentration risk in luxury-dependent business models.
- •AI platforms have drastically different traffic-return ratios compared to Google. Google: 1 page scraped returns 2 visitors. OpenAI: 1:250. Anthropic's Claude: 1:6,000. Adobe found US travel site visits from AI sources jumped 3,500% year-over-year in July 2025. 29% of consumers now use AI for trip planning.
- •Bernstein's most likely scenario (60% probability): AI platforms access OTA and supplier inventory directly; hotels using the Model Context Protocol could bypass OTAs entirely. OTAs remain relevant but face market share erosion and commission pressure.
Transcript
The global travel industry is entering a new phase, right? We all have seen it. There's a lot of discussion all over the place. Um, there's a shaping shape shape shifting demands and we have changing power dynamics and all very much influenced by AI and all the situation in the world right now. And I'd say the thing is that currently many long-h held assumptions that we have about our industry are not really to be hold true anymore. They're challenged actually as we speak in real time. And I was...
