From Hype to Value: The Investor View on Traveltech’s Next Cycle
Summary
Morgann Lesné, Partner at Cambon Partners and a 20-year veteran investment banker who founded his firm 22 years ago, delivered a closing keynote drawing on proprietary M&A and funding data from the bank.travel initiative. Cambon Partners, a team of 65 based in Paris, London, and Madrid, specializes in small- and mid-cap transactions ranging from €30M to €1B, and Lesné personally has completed approximately 70 travel and hospitality deals over 12 years. His database covers 3,000 M&A deals over the last decade and nearly 7,000 funding rounds across roughly 3,000 companies totaling close to $140 billion in capital deployed.
On M&A structure, Lesné observed that while most deals remain domestic — Europeans buy in Europe, Americans in the US — the largest deal values are concentrated in the US. Hospitality technology is the single biggest driver of M&A volume and value within the travel sector, both because of high transaction frequency and because margins are strongest there. Real asset deals (airlines, hotel companies) still dwarf technology transactions in absolute value.
A defining structural shift Lesné highlighted is the rise of PE-backed consolidation platforms — mid-sized companies with €10–30M ARR that convince private equity to back a roll-up strategy. TravelSoft (which Lesné advised) is his primary case study: founded 25 years ago in France, the company took 18 years to attract prestigious private equity, then spent approximately €400 million on acquisitions over the last 18 months to become arguably Europe's largest travel software consolidator. Juniper, backed by Constellation, is doing the same and is framed as a market 'entertainer' providing liquidity exits to subscale companies. He also cited the recent S4BT acquisition of Indian hotel connectivity company HotelHub (serving clients such as MX, GBT, Carlson, Concur, and FCM) as an example of active corporate travel M&A.
On public and private market valuations, Lesné was direct: valuations are under pressure. Amadeus is down roughly 20% over six months, though it recovered ~10% in 10 days despite geopolitical headwinds, which he reads as a possible valuation floor. Constellation Software's market cap was cut roughly in half over a year. For private markets, software multiples that peaked at 24–26x EBITDA in 2024–2025 are now rerated to approximately 20x or below — a ~20% decline. Large-cap deals are most affected; mid- and small-cap multiples (9–11x EBITDA) are more stable.
His practical advice for founders: do not panic-sell, but expect lower upfront consideration and negotiate higher earnouts, as TravelSoft founders successfully did. On AI startup disruption, he was skeptical that new entrants would displace entrenched IT vendors — 'the more entrenched you are in your client's IT infrastructure, the best protected you are.' On the AI investment paradox, he highlighted Anthropic's $30B raise at a $380B valuation and OpenAI's anticipated $100B round at $780B valuation, questioning whether OpenAI could realistically reach a $4T valuation. He expects AI investment to benefit travel through improved tools rather than direct travel-specific AI development.
Key Takeaways
- •Cambon Partners tracked 3,000 travel M&A deals over 10 years and nearly 7,000 funding rounds totaling ~$140B across ~3,000 companies, making bank.travel one of the most comprehensive proprietary datasets in the sector.
- •TravelSoft spent approximately €400M on acquisitions in just 18 months after 18 years as a standalone company, becoming arguably Europe's largest travel software consolidator — funded by PE backing secured after nearly two decades of organic growth.
- •Software EBITDA multiples have compressed roughly 20%: deals done at 24–26x EBITDA in 2024–2025 are now more likely to close at sub-20x, but mid- and small-cap deals (9–11x EBITDA) remain relatively stable.
- •Amadeus is down ~20% over six months but recovered ~10% in just 10 days despite geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict), which Lesné interprets as a potential valuation floor for public travel tech stocks.
- •Constellation Software — the world's largest software consolidator — saw its market cap roughly halved in a year, signaling a broad investor re-rating of software businesses amid AI uncertainty.
- •Lesné predicted more corporate travel and MICE M&A, citing the recent S4BT acquisition of Indian company HotelHub (connectivity platform serving MX, GBT, Carlson, Concur, FCM) as an example of the trend already in motion.
- •Most M&A activity remains domestic: Europeans buy European companies, Americans buy American — cross-border deal flow is less common than assumed, with important implications for how advisors must be regionally embedded.
- •Blackstone is the single largest PE backer in travel, invested in both tech and real assets (it is one of the world's biggest hotel owners); SoftBank follows with 15 travel transactions; KKR recently injected close to €1B into E Travel Eye at a ~€2B valuation.
- •Airbnb's path to IPO — staying private until it was worth $40B — is Lesné's model for founders: 'there is money for you to stay private until a very advanced stage, meaning you don't need to sell necessarily too early.'
Transcript
And we we're coming guys to the very end of our this year's travel tech track. And uh I mentioned it is is it is essential to have the investor's view on it just because we talked about about uh the technical options. We talked about everything but someone has to spend some money and it's good to have your view and your your competence in that. Uh Morgan Lesni is here partner at Cambon Partners. >> Hi everyone. in the industry for a few decades and you know how how travel is running >> 10 decade...
