Politics, Perception and Travel: Building Resilience in Tourism
Summary
Barry Rogers, Director of Destination Strategy at Toposophy, delivers a presentation at ITB Berlin drawn from Toposophy's white paper 'Politics, Perception, and Travel,' focusing on how geopolitical events shape traveler sentiment and what destinations can do to build resilience. Rogers opens by challenging the tourism industry's failure to develop geopolitical crisis preparedness despite being one of the sectors most exposed to political disruption. He anchors the talk around a stark quote from Mark Carney at Davos in January (2025/2026): 'We are not in a transition. We are in a rupture. We are no longer in a world of comfortable assumptions. Nostalgia is not a strategy.' Rogers argues that this message, heard by politicians worldwide, was largely ignored by the tourism industry.
Toposophy is presented as a strategy, marketing, and research firm specializing in tourism crisis management, with clients including the European Travel Commission. The firm recently launched the ETC Crisis Resilience Hub, a platform purpose-built to help destination management organizations (DMOs) prepare for geopolitical, socioeconomic, and environmental crises.
Rogers uses a proprietary matrix plotting political events against their impact on travel to illustrate just how widespread the problem has become. He notes he has given this presentation three times in six months, and each time Europe has 'moved slowly but steadily from stage left to stage right' on the instability index. By the time of the ITB Berlin presentation, virtually every European destination could be plotted somewhere on the crisis matrix — a marked change from six months prior. Key geopolitical events cited as having disrupted traveler perception over the past three years include: COVID government shutdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the US Capitol riot, anything associated with Donald Trump, and — most recently — a US-Iran war.
A central finding from Toposophy's research is that political instability does not need to be violent or catastrophic to damage tourism: perceived instability alone is sufficient to cause travelers to stop booking. Safety is the primary concern — described as triggering 'our lizard brains' and Maslow's hierarchy of needs — and any real or perceived threat to safety is characterized as an immediate 'binary no' from travelers. Rogers also highlights that travelers' primary source of information during political crises is government travel advisories, not DMOs — yet travelers say they would like to hear from tourism brands during crises. This creates a reputational vacuum that Rogers identifies as a major strategic failure: DMOs continue posting 'sunsets' on Instagram while geopolitical disruptions unfold, which he calls 'tone-deaf in 2026.'
Two counter-narrative campaigns from the United States are cited as positive examples: 'DC is Open' from Washington DC, and 'All for the Love of Chicago' from Chicago — both running in direct contradiction to the current US administration's messaging. Rogers's framework for destination resilience consists of five pillars: (1) build and rehearse a political crisis playbook, (2) monitor sentiment not just headlines or bed nights, (3) develop flexible brand narratives that can pivot in a crisis, (4) empower the local network to tell a consistent story, and (5) build trust before the crisis hits. He emphasizes that DMOs showing up for the first time with a 'we're safe' message after a crisis breaks is already too late. Rogers closes by urging destinations to 'stop planning tourism for a world that we had and start planning tourism for the world that we are in,' warning against confusing nostalgia with strategy and optimism with naivety.
Key Takeaways
- •Toposophy's research shows that political instability does not need to be violent or catastrophic to destroy tourism demand — perceived instability alone triggers immediate booking cancellations. Rogers states: 'Political events don't need to be violent or catastrophic to massively damage tourism. Perceived instability is all you need before travelers stop booking.'
- •Mark Carney's January Davos statement — 'We are not in a transition. We are in a rupture. We are no longer in a world of comfortable assumptions. Nostalgia is not a strategy' — is used as the central provocation for the session. Rogers argues this warning, heard by world leaders, was almost entirely missed by the tourism industry.
- •Rogers presented a geopolitical impact matrix to a live ITB Berlin audience and found that almost every European destination in the room could be plotted somewhere on the crisis index. He noted this was not the case when he first gave the same presentation six months earlier — indicating a rapid and accelerating deterioration of geopolitical stability across Europe.
- •Safety is the dominant driver of travel cancellation decisions. Rogers describes it as triggering 'our lizard brains' and Maslow's hierarchy of needs, characterizing any real or perceived safety threat as an immediate 'binary no' from travelers — they simply stop considering the destination entirely.
- •Travelers' number-one source of information during a political crisis is government travel advisories, not tourism brands. However, Toposophy's research found that travelers say they actively want to hear from DMOs and destination brands during crises — a gap that currently goes unaddressed by most organizations.
- •DMOs are criticized for communicating in a 'tone-deaf' way during crises — continuing to post aspirational content (sunsets, experiences) on social media while geopolitical disruptions unfold in their destination. Rogers frames this as a significant reputational risk and a missed opportunity to build traveler trust.
- •Two US destination campaigns are cited as best-practice examples of proactive counter-narrative marketing during political disruption: 'DC is Open' (Washington DC) and 'All for the Love of Chicago' (Chicago), both explicitly positioning the destination in contrast to the current US federal administration's messaging.
Transcript
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we continue our conversation when we talk about balance, of recovery, but also of resilience. So, this will drive us into our next conversation in just a second when we talk about politics, perfection, and travel, building resilience in tourism. So, give us another minute to set up the station. We will back in two minutes. See you soon. ITB Berlin. >> The game is changing and fast. You need a full suite of solutions and a reliable partner. And now we're connecting the ...
