The Understanding: Polycrisis in Travel

This panel at ITB Berlin 2026 brought together three distinct perspectives — a conflict-resolution entrepreneur, a government minister, and a data analyst — to examine what moderator Katie Gallus framed as the central question: 'How do we lead tourism into balance when balance itself has become such a moving target?' The conversation challenged simple narratives and produced genuinely contrasting viewpoints on tourism's role in a world of overlapping crises.

Aziz Abu Sarah, co-founder of Mejdi Tours (operating in 40+ countries), argued that polycrisis is not new — wars, occupations, and conflict existed 30, 40, and 50 years ago — what has changed is the travel industry's willingness to acknowledge and engage with them. Abu Sarah's Mejdi Tours model runs Israeli and Palestinian co-guided trips through conflict zones, deliberately leaning into political and social tensions rather than sanitizing them. He reported that participants who come afraid consistently leave inspired, with transformed perceptions of the region. He cited a recent book he co-authored with a Jewish colleague whose parents were killed on October 7, titled 'The Future Is Peace,' framing travel itself as an act of diplomacy. He challenged a claim made by former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer earlier at the conference that 'tourism does not bring peace,' arguing the personal experience of millions of travelers proves otherwise.

Minister Edmund Bartlett (Jamaica's Minister of Tourism, serving his fourth term and co-founder of the Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre) provided the geopolitical and crisis management lens. He described Jamaica's experience with Hurricane Melissa — which struck with sustained winds of 190 mph and gusts to 220 mph, a barometric pressure of 891 millibars, lasting eight hours across a third of the country and causing $8–10 billion USD in damage (approximately 30% of GDP), damaging 150,000 physical units and impacting 1.5 million people. Despite that scale, Jamaica lost only 38 lives, restored 90% of energy and water within four weeks, and reopened to international tourists by December 15 — less than seven weeks after the October 28 event. At the time of the hurricane, 25,000 international visitors were on-island; all were safely repatriated within five days. The minister argued this rebuilt confidence and trust in destination Jamaica. He recommended political leaders establish tourism innovation incubators with dedicated funding for young entrepreneurs with ideas but no collateral, citing Jamaica's own program.

Stephen Dutton (Global Insight Manager at Euromonitor International, overseeing research across 84 countries and 16 offices) brought the empirical dimension. He noted that inbound tourism to the US declined in 2025, linking it directly to traveler anxiety about political changes and new border procedures, with Europeans actively delaying trips. He highlighted China as a second case study: slower post-pandemic reopening, domestic economic stress, and 500,000 flights canceled in three days due to conflict with Japan — all reducing outbound Chinese travel. He identified 'soft drivers' — especially uncertainty and friction — as critical but hard-to-quantify variables that mainstream forecasting models miss. He cited the UK's April 2025 introduction of an ETA (Electronic Travel Authorization) as a concrete friction example. His core finding: despite economic pressure, travel spending continues to grow paradoxically, because travel serves as a psychological escape and aspirational outlet during times of anxiety. He recommended every tour operator and destination re-examine their target demographic, noting audiences are likely becoming more regional/local as international flows reshape.